On January after 471 days of ceaseless fighting and bombing, the guns fell silent and the world released a collective sigh of relief as the ceasefire took a tenuous hold over the whole of Gaza. 3 Israeli hostages were released and a corresponding 90 Palestinian prisoners, 69 women and 21 children, were duly bused home to jubilant celebrations by their loved ones. Many world leaders congratulated incoming US president Trump who many saw as the real architect of this ceasefire and the one who had the balls to stand up to Bibi Netanyahu, courage which outgoing US president Biden (a self-confessed Zionist) really lacked for the last 15 months. Hopes were high that real peace was just around the corner and that Palestinians could begin to harbor hopes of an independent Palestinian state and begin to plan on how to rebuild Gaza. It proved to be a false dawn.
Slowly, in the early days of him assuming office as POTUS, he revealed his hand.
- He rescinded previous US sanctions on the violent and murder bent Zionist Settlers who were wreaking havoc on the Occupied Palestinian West Bank thus giving them a green light to continue their murderous campaign of intimidation, murder, violence and land grabbing in the occupied territories.
- He also rescinded to order to ban the supply of two thousand bunker-blaster bombs to Israel, again knowing full well that in any future conflicts in Gaza, Israel would be more likely than not to employ these bombs to destroy what infrastructure left standing to leave Gaza into mere rubble, something Israeli leaders promised to do very early in the aftermath of October 7 2023 uprising by Hamas.
- This was followed by the announcement of suspension of all foreign aid including military aid to all countries including Ukraine with the exception of two countries, Egypt and Israel.
- Finally he declared that since Gaza is now a “demolition site” and unsafe for habitation, he announced that he was now talking with the leaders of Egypt and Jordan (and the latest news is that Indonesia was also asked as well) so that these two countries can take the Gazan population either temporarily or permanently for the “safety of these people” who for the last 15 months his government have been complicit in the genocide by supplying all the missiles and bombs Israel needed to kill at least 47 000 innocent lives and leaving another 100 000 severely injured. In other words Trump is making the final steps to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians from Gaza, make them refugees in foreign countries leaving Gaza to the Israelis who will rebuild it as part of an expanded Jewish State.
These are ominous signs that must be taken very seriously by the rest of the world that we must not take the safety of the people of Gaza for granted once a cease-fire has been established. Trump has been known to utter outrageous statements for instance not ruling out force to take over Greenland and reclaiming the Panama Canal.
The 3 questions that needs answering are 1) Is Trump really serious? 2) Does he have the tools to achieve it? 3) What are the chances of him achieving it? This article attempts to answer all these questions.
First of all, bear in mind, Trump has always been Israel’s staunchest friend. It was in his first term of office that Trump moved the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in 2018 signifying that America recognized Israel’s illegal capture of East Jerusalem (therefore nullifying any future Palestinian attempts to make it their capital of a free Palestine state). In the same year, Trump recognized the Golan Heights, seized from Syria during the 1967 war, as being part of Israel. These two major moves went almost unnoticed and barely got a mention in the world media and is now seen as a fait accompli..
Releasing sanctions on the Israeli settlers on the West Bank is tantamount turning a blind eye to their campaign of terror and illegal annexation of the West Bank. Forcing the Gazans into permanent exile also tantamount to giving Israel carte Blanche to do the same in Gaza. By allowing the supply of the bombs, Trump is signalling that the US may allow Israel to resume its unfinished war on Gaza should the Gazans refuse to move. This is the unspoken threat behind his actions. Hence we can conclude that Trump is really serious and will have no qualms in trying to go through the whole exercise as his previous acts of support for Israel’s expansionist plans have proven.
What of the reactions by the two countries slated by Trump to be the receiving countries for these Gazans? Needless to say their responses have been shrill and vociferous. Both Jordan and Egypt have firmly rejected Trump’s plan to evacuate Gaza and relocate its population to their countries. OIC countries have also been quick to condemn this plan and collectively rejected it.
Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi stated that the country’s rejection of the proposed transfer of Palestinians was “firm and unwavering.” He further uttered that He reiterated that resolving the Palestinian issue lies in Palestine, emphasising that “Jordan is for Jordanians, and Palestine is for Palestinians.” He also emphasized that such a move would risk expanding the conflict in the region and undermine prospects for peace and coexistence.
Egypt’s foreign ministry also condemned the idea, warning that any attempt to move Palestinians out of their land, whether temporarily or in the long term, would risk expanding the conflict in the region. Egypt president Al Sisi also talked of the security risk of transferring the Palestinians to the Sinai Peninsula bordering Gaza. All these talks and protests by the two unwilling accomplices are however unlikely to faze president Trump or cause him any sleepless nights if he wanted to go ahead. Does he have the toolsets to complete the job? The answer is definitely yes.
Let us start with Jordan. Jordan is economically very fragile. It has no oil reserves and depends on costly oil imports for fuel. Its foreign debts are 90 % of its GDP. Its population is around 11.52 million. Youth unemployment is very high and has reached 30 % of the total population. There are already 2.39 million Palestinians refugees in refugees camps since the Nakba of 1948 and 1967 Six Day War. Add to that about 1.3 million Syria refugees already seeking refuge putting an immense strain on Jordan’s already limited resources. In 2022, the US provided 1.65 billion USD in aid to Jordan. Without US aid, King Abdullah and his government would have been toppled long ago. His citizens, the majority of which are of Palestinian origin and/or related to Palestinians in the occupied territories despise him for his active support of Israel during the 15-month genocide. The UAE and Jordan provided land routes for Israeli-bound goods from Dubai to Jordan when the Yemeni Houthis blockaded the Red Sea. When Iran attacked Israel by air, Jordanian F-16s helped to shoot down drones and missile when they could have chosen to be neutral. Jordan’s absolute refusal to play along will be followed by the a cut in US aid and sanctions on Jordanian exports to the US.
Trump knows better than most that when “push comes to shove”, Jordan will be willing to accept these refugees for fear of losing the aid that they get annually from Uncle Sam. Of course Trump would throw some sweeteners into Jordan’s way in the form of extra aid to ensure Jordan’s compliance.
Egypt’s circumstances are even worse compared to their Jordanian cousins.
As of June 2024, Egypt’s external debt stood at approximately USD $152.9 billion and rising. Its debt servicing requires considerable funding and many Arab countries like the UAE has given substantial aid to prop up its ailing economy. For the last 10 years, Egypt’s annual inflation is around 11.6 % creating extreme hardship for the 90 million odd citizens to cope with the ever-rising cost of living. Unemployment rate hovers around 10.6 %. Under President AL Sisi, authoritarian rule, human rights abuses and imprisonment has gone up exponentially. Corruption is endemic. Egypt’s economic dependency on the United States is therefore significant and multifaceted. Since the signing of the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty, the U.S. has provided Egypt with over 50 billion in military aid.
The U.S. has also been a major provider of economic aid to Egypt. This assistance has contributed to various sectors, including infrastructure, education, health, and agriculture. For example, U.S. aid has helped millions of Egyptians gain access to electricity, clean water, and sanitation services. In 2021, total bilateral trade in goods reached $9.1 billion, making the U.S. Egypt’s largest export market in Africa. U.S. exports to Egypt include wheat (bread is the staple diet of most Egyptians) , corn, machinery, and aircraft, while imports from Egypt include apparel, natural gas, and agricultural products. The same tactic employed by Trump will certainly not be totally rejected by the Egyptians. Cut off from US aid will be nothing short of a a disaster for this country. Hence Trump has a strong hand in dealing with these two countries. He knows that at the end of the day King Abdullah and Al Sisi will acquiesce (no matter how unwilling) because as vassal states of the US they have little bargaining power.
Of course one has to also see what are the Zionists views on that matter? The right-wing ministers in Netanyahu’s government are absolutely delighted with this idea. Bezalel Smotrich Israel far right minister was overjoyed with this “great” idea. He champions the idea of annexing the West Bank and clearing out Gaza. He supported the idea that the Palestinians move elsewhere and promised to do his best to make it happen. This has always been the idea behind the whole policy of occupation, denial of human rights and annexation in the occupied territories by the Zionists anyway so of course Trump’s idea falls perfectly into the Zionist agenda for a Greater Israel. So of course they readily concurred with the plan.
The final question that needs to be answered is what are the chances that Trump will succeed? He has the will and the toolsets to achieve it. How strong is the will the Palestinians to resist this plan?
Let us look at the Palestinian groups themselves. We start from the point of view of the Palestinian Authority (PA). The Palestinian Authority (PA) has strongly condemned President Donald Trump’s proposal to evacuate Gaza. They view it as a violation of their “red lines” and an unacceptable suggestion for forced displacement2. The PA emphasized that the Palestinian people will never abandon their land or holy sites and will not allow a repeat of the catastrophes of 1948 and 1967. They urged Trump to sustain the Gaza ceasefire agreement, ensure the full withdrawal of Israeli forces, establish the PA (Sic) as the governing body in Gaza, and advance efforts towards the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state.
We can discount the PA from this argument right from the start. The PA is a corrupt body, bereft of any moral or ethical authority to speak out on behalf of the Palestinian people. They were silent spectators during the genocide, acting as Israel’s local militia in the occupied West Bank in suppressing any dissent or show of support for Hamas by the Palestinians they claimed to represent. They were so weak, they could not protect their own people from the murderous campaigns launched by the far right Zionist settlers in the occupied West Bank. If a free and fair election was to be held tomorrow, the PA would have been thrown out by their own people. Their military power, a puny force that will not withstand any concerted Israeli military onslaught even if they tried. Their role is nothing more than that played by the French Vichy Army during the invasion of France in World War Two as Germany’s surrogate French traitors hated by their own countrymen.
When we look at the two forces who took on the Israeli forces during the invasion of Gaza, however we see a different scenario. The very idea of relocating Gazans sparked strong reactions from Palestinian resistance (Muqawama) groups, including Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. A senior Hamas official told AFP on Sunday that the Palestinian resistance group would oppose the proposed plan.
“As they have foiled every plan for displacement and alternative homelands over the decades, our people will also foil such projects“
said Bassem Naim, a member of the Hamas political bureau, referring to Trump’s comments.
Islamic Jihad on Sunday also condemned Trump’s idea, calling it an encouragement of “war crimes”. Describing the plan as “deplorable”, the group said in a statement, “This proposal falls within the framework of encouraging war crimes and crimes against humanity by forcing our people to leave their land.” There is no doubt that if Trump were to execute this plan, the Muqawama will rise up and challenge him till the last man. No amount of inducements will enable them to agree and leave their beloved land. Interestingly, the civilian population in Gaza who suffered unimaginable suffering and trauma during the war also rejected Trump’s suggestion outright.
Ordinary Gazans interviewed on the streets by Al Jazeera were focused only upon returning to their shattered homes and lands. Their once beautiful homes are now nothing but rubble but they are determined to return and rebuild. There is no thought of ever leaving Gaza. Trump’s cruel description of Gaza as a “demolition site” is unfortunately apt but to these people, Gaza is infinitely more preferable than living in tents in some dusty wind blown part of the Sinai Peninsula or Jordanian valley as permanent refugees subsisting under UN food aid. Gazans prefer dying in the land of their birth rather than living out a life as refugees elsewhere.
Hence even if Donald Trump’s “suggestion” of relocating the Palestinians out of Gaza will somehow be enabled by the two Arab countries in question, this plan will not take place because the people most affected by the war are not willing to move out of Gaza.
What is certain though is that this move will definitely precipitate another war between Israel (and the US) and the population in Gaza. Such a scenario will definitely involve other actors like Lebanon, Iran and most definitely the Yemeni Houthis. Other state actors involvement cannot be discounted.
Hence it is our opinion that Trump plan for the relocation of the Palestinians in Gaza and the annexation of the West Bank into Israel is not so far-fetched as some people think, but the chances are that this plan will face considerable difficulties and may plunge America into a war that it is desperately hoping to avoid. Should he be dumb enough to try, it will spark another bloody war, an existential one between the Palestinians and their allies on one hand and Israel, US and its allies on the other.
Like Bibi, he is destined to learn a very big mistake. The Palestinians are a proud race whose mission in life is to protect their country for a greater cause (more than just race) based on their religion of Islam. In Trump’s world, he is used to wheeling and dealing; this means exploiting his enemies’ weaknesses, thinking that every man has his price and if you apply pressure, your foe will buckle and yield. He has yet to meet people who, based on a high and moral principle, will not give in an inch to concede their rights for a free and independent Palestinian state. Palestinians will stand their ground come what may. 15 months of relentless combat has shown the real mettle of the Palestinians.
So although Trump will try his best to achieve for Israel, what Israel’s military failed to achieve in combat, he is doomed to fail like others before him. Of that we are certain.
