Emblem of Hamas’s and PLO political wing
PACE
Tuesday 23rd of July saw the news emerging from Beijing, China that 14 Palestinian factions headed by Fatah and Hamas have signed a historic agreement to end division and strengthen Palestinian unity” The announcement followed reconciliation talks hosted by China involving 14 Palestinian factions which come as Israel wages its relentless and genocidal war against the population in Gaza
According to Wang Yi, China’s Foreign Minister “The core outcome is that the PLO (Palestine Liberation Organization) is the sole legitimate representative of all Palestinian people,”, adding that “an agreement has been reached on post-Gaza war governance and the establishment of a provisional national reconciliation government.”
This was further reinforced by the statements of Mustafa Bargouthi, president of the Palestinian National Initiative, who was at the Beijing talks, who declared that “all the parties” have agreed that they should join the PLO, and that the organization is the only legitimate representative of the Palestinians.
Many attempts have been made to bring the two sides for reconciliation before. Arab countries have tried since 2006 until as recently as 2022. Many agreements made between both sides could not be implemented due to strong Israeli, American and also EU opposition. A favourite Israeli tactic of punishment against any agreement involves withholding taxes that it collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority. In other moves, it announced the annexation of yet more Palestinian territories at each announcement as a means of showing what it thought about Palestinian aspirations of statehood. America is also complicit in opposing Palestinian statehood. Former US president Jimmy Carter was reported to have said in 2009 that the US strongly opposed any Hamas involvement in any Palestinian Israeli peace process.
Germany says Israel’s massacre at Gaza school justified in ‘self defense’
Dr Azzam Tamimi, a British -Palestinian political commentator does not trust the PA authorities at all. In an interview recently he declares the Beijing declaration to be a mere PR stunt. He is highly skeptical of the PA and its leader Mahmoud Abbas. The reasons for this healthy dose of skepticism could be found by looking at the history and trajectory of the PA.
The PLO or Fatah group has dominated the PA government since the time of Yasser Arafat, its founder leader. After his demise (Arafat was widely suspected to have died due to polonium poisoning by Mossad), was succeeded by Mahmoud Abbas (also known as Abu Mazen). Abu Mazen did not welcome the idea of Hamas coming on board the PA government and sought to establish a stranglehold of top posts.
He thwarted any attempt to bring Hamas and other groups into his government. Pressure from Israel and the US also increased his reluctance. Over the years, Fatah-dominated PA has grown to be more of Israel’s subservient tool for keeping the Palestinians in the West Bank quiet. Palestinians as a whole, despise Abu Mazen and his corrupt henchmen. A free and fair election amongst the Palestinians would swiftly see the casting of Abu Mazen and his gang out into the political wilderness, something he recognizes and is the main reason why there has never been an election at all in Palestine since 2007.
Hamas, all this while, held the principle that Israel’s expulsion of over seven hundred thousand Palestinians in the 1948 Nakba and takeover of their lands and properties ever since needed to be reversed and should form the starting point of any negotiations for peace between Israel and the Palestinians. This is some thing Israel absolutely refuses to accept and negotiate. On the other hand, the PLO has accepted as this as de facto and Arafat signed the Oslo Accords in 1993. The PA is looking to force Israel to agree to go back to the pre-1967 borders. This is something which the Zionists especially the far right under the Netanyahu government also refuses to agree upon. The far right wants to annex the whole land of Palestine under the Greater Israel vision.
This difference stands as the most important obstacle towards unity between the two major Palestinian parties. Hostile relations between Hamas and PA escalated into the Battle of Gaza or the Gaza civil war which was a brief civil war between Fatah and Hamas that took place in the Gaza Strip from 10 to 15 June 2007. It was a prominent event in the Fatah–Hamas conflict, centered on the struggle for power after Fatah lost the 2006 Palestinian legislative election. Since 2007 until late 2022, successive attempts by Arab governments and organisations have attempted to reconcile the two parties with many agreements between both sides signed and sealed to wide acclaim but none of these treaties and agreements ever saw the light of the day after the signings.
Abu Mazen did not want Hamas in any coalition government and sought to put obstacles in their way. Sadly, the failures in unity attempts only served to strengthen the Zionists and their American backers perceptions that the Palestinians will never agree to unite. America blamed the Palestinians for the failure to negotiate for a Palestinian state.
Obviously these previous failures towards unity between the two major Palestinian parties were happening in situations where the Israeli occupation, although very bad in most times were not as horrific as that which happened after Oct 7 2023. Post Oct 7, however, the genocidal war in Gaza with the slaughter of more than 39 000 civilians and more than 91 000 injured and thousands more missing under the rubble, complete devastation of Gaza into bombed out wastelands was something far more different and posed an existential threat to the population in Gaza.
Netanyahu clearly stated goal of displacing the whole Gaza population out into the Sinai desert retaining permanent governance and control of Gaza, including setting up Israeli settlements in Gaza territory afterwards has altered the balance of equation from Hamas point of view. Hamas saw that saving the Gazan population from existential threat of genocide and rebuilding the enclave represents important objectives that supersedes earlier considerations.
10 months of continuous war inflicted untold misery upon the innocent civilian population. It was time for a permanent ceasefire and for the killing to stop. A unity government, (despite its obvious flaws and limitations) represents the best way forward to court world public favor and move on to the rebuilding of Gaza post war.
The PA, powerless in Gaza and seemingly unable to protect its own Palestinian enclave in the West Bank from militant settler attacks, occupation forces raids and wanton killing of innocent citizens and takeover of their houses and lands, have been left watching helplessly on the sidelines. Abu Mazen, so far has done absolutely nothing except to blame Hamas for starting the conflict and make meaningless pleas to Israel to stop the killings and accept a ceasefire.
The PA realised that Hamas has stolen their thunder with the Gaza war and international support and sympathy for the Gazans and Hamas are at an all time high. Should a ceasefire breaks out, PA might be sidelined by the international community in the whole peace process and lose its raison d’etre as the internationally recognized representative of the Palestinian people unless it acts now and unite with Hamas. So this agreement in Beijing is also very much in PA’s interest as it confirms and reinforces the role of the PA in any future peace process (although this would mean sharing the bed with its erstwhile enemy).
The PA also recognizes (although it never admits it officially) that the Israeli government is merely prolonging the occupation to complete the annexation of the whole of Palestine and Al Aqsa Mosque. Israel has never desired peace, it covets the whole land of Palestine and beyond, (even to the holy Muslim city of Madinah). Once Palestine is annexed and officially becomes a part of Israel, the role of PA would cease to exist and Abu Mazen and his ilk will find themselves back in the refugee camps in Lebanon. Hence like it or not, the PA has no choice but to agree. The arguments put forward by the Chinese mediators, no doubt, playing a massive role in bringing the opposing sides to the table and subsequent accepting of the terms of agreement.
Of course there are risk factors to be mitigated. Will Mohamed Abbas deliver on his promises of reform where previously his actions did not match his bluster? Will the parties involved in the deal deliver their sides of the deal and commit on a long term scale?
Things in Palestinian favour
In previous conflicts, Israel held superior military supremacy and the unquestioning loyalty and backing from the United States and almost European countries. World public opinion favoured the Israeli narrative support. Events since Oct 7th 2023 has since turned this around.
Global Shift in sympathy away from Israel towards Palestine
Israel has lost wide spread sympathy world wide (and this crucially also includes losing the trust of the American public who seemed to wake up from their stupor post Oct 7). The Zionists’ perpetual narrative about being “innocent Nazi Holocausts victims” and the carefully nurtured image as being the Middle East “only democratic state” surrounded by despotic Arab countries and Palestinian terrorists’ intent on its destructions have been exposed as pure lies. The world has seen in real time the murderous rampage the Israelis wrecked in Gaza and the ensuing genocide since. Protests against the war in Gaza has been occurring across all major continents since the war begun and these protests show no sign of decreasing. Ordinary citizens in major cities around the world marching every week in support for a halt to violence and the slaughter of innocent children, women and old men in Gaza.
Students camping it out in US Ivy league universities demanding for a ceasefire and an end to university investments in organisations that are complicit in the genocide in Gaza. Try as they may through covert censoring of the social media that the Zionists control, the Zionists seem to have failed and lost the PR battle big time. Palestinians have won the Battle of the Minds fought on social media, and this is an acknowledged fact. 195 countries have recognised the Palestinian state. Many countries such as South Africa, Norway, Spain, Mexico, Brazil, Bolivia have fought for their cause in the UN something unheard of previously. Global tide of public opinion is firmly in Palestinian favour, something they have never enjoyed before.
Shattering the myth of Israeli Army invincibility
The Israeli’s self-proclaimed label that they have the most moral and invincible army in the world was also shown to be fake claims. Social media from witnesses, independent observers, Palestinians and also social media postings uploaded by Israeli troops themselves has been shown them to be actually a bunch of indisciplined, immoral and trigger happy murderers of women, children and old men. In previous wars, Israel relied on overwhelming military superiority and surprise to inflict losses on its enemies. Previous wars ended very quickly in Israel’s favour leading them to believe they were superior to their enemies.
Despite their overwhelming weaponry and endless supply of ammunition, 10 months into the war the IDF despite their claims are no closer to defeating the resistance in Gaza. The IDF not having fought a sustained war this long, is already suffering battle fatigue and losing hundreds of armored vehicles. They have lost the appetite for war. Tensions between the army and the Israeli cabinet have clearly broken out into the open which is unprecedented. The war in Gaza has exposed serious deficiencies in Israel’s military strength and dented its image.
Israel’s Crumbling Economy
The war in Gaza now entering its tenth month has seen Israel’s economy tanking very badly. Foreign investments have dried up as investors fled for safer shores. Intel cancelled plans for a 25 USD billion investment last June. Ditto Samsung. 2 American churches recently announced they were divesting their Israeli Bonds. Foreign investments are fleeing to safer shores. 46 000 businesses have closed since the Gaza war. Many organisations are working with insufficient personel as their staff are conscripted to fight the war in Gaza and against Lebanon. The port of Eilat has zero ships docking due to the blockade imposed by the Houthis.
Israel’s Zman magazine reported that 470 000 Israelis have left the country since Oct 7. Amongst them include some of the brightest and best Israeli brains seeking safety elsewhere. The longer the war drags on, the worse Israel’s economic position is. Fitch, the international credit rating was reported on the 13th of August has just downgraded the Israeli debt from ‘A+” to A (almost reaching junk bond status) giving gloomy ratings for the economy warning that the war might extend into 2025. As a small nation, Israel cannot maintain the war with its economy in such a mess.
Internal tensions within Israel
Despite its apartheid policies and emphasis on the Jewish nature of Israel, there are deep internal fractures within the Jewish population even in critical times of war. Ultra-Orthodox Jews or Haredi Jews are furious because the supreme court ruled that they must serve in the Israeli Army. Since 1948 they have been exempted from military service and instead spend all their time studying the Torah in their yeshivas or religious classes. Totalling about 1.3 million (13.3 % of Israel’s population), they have vowed to defy the ruling and threatened to emigrate somewhere where they will be free to practice their religion. As thousands of Israeli soldiers have been killed or seriously wounded, Israel need to replenish their troop strength and loss of the Haredi Jews would pose a big threat.
Netanyahu is currently on trial facing three charges of corruption. Many Israelis believe his is guilty and that is why he wants to prolong the war in Gaza to avoid being sentenced to jail and lose his power. Also the families of the hostages or Israelis currently held by Hamas are angry that he is purposely delaying a ceasefire with Hamas because he wants the war to continue even at the cost of the Israeli prisoners. They are demonstrating every week for him either to resign or free the prisoners.
Netanyahu also is managing an extreme right-wing coalition who have no wish for peace. Israeli Minister Bezalel Smotrich was widely condemned by world governments including US and EU for openly suggesting “that it was better to let the Palestinians in Gaza to starve to death but that the world might not allow it”. By so saying, he confirmed Israel’s genocidal intent towards the Palestinians making the job of the ICC much easier. Israel, is fully on the way to be a Pariah State shunned by the international community due to its apartheid policies and Jewish supremacy policies. The experience of South Africa has shown that international boycotts will make any nation reverse its policies. If not anything else, this is the most important achievement that Oct 7 has resulted in the unveiling of the evil face of Zionism to the whole world.
Hence politically, militarily and economically, Israel is suffering major set-backs which has considerably diminished its global support and badly tarnished its image. So its bargaining power in any future peace talks with the Palestinians will be considerably weakened as never before.
US diminished role and Image
The US has proven to be Israel’s main source for arms, its financier, its military ally and defence lawyer. Its media supports Israel by censoring news critical of Israel, under reporting Israel’s crimes against humanity and publishing Israeli propaganda (later on proven to be mere lies). However, the Gaza war has greatly diminished America’s image as a trustworthy honest broker for peace and instead exposed it as a willing and active participant in committing the genocide of the 21st century. The fact that China brokered the deal between Hamas and the PA only shows that other nations are now usurping the role of international peace broker role that the US itself takes as its god-given right. This is a big slap in the face for Uncle Sam. It has been upstaged by its rival China.
The majority of the US public does not support Israel. Without intervention by AIPAC, Israel would have lost the US establishment support as well. The pressure for a two-state solution generated by the war globally and within the United Nations is currently so great that the US cannot oppose it without courting world-wide condemnation. Hence USA’s hegemony and its influence on the Israeli Palestinian conflict has been diminished. Instead, China’s role has continued to shine as a serious state actor for international peace.
Conclusion
The call for setting up a free and independent Palestinian state are in their best position at any time in the whole 76 years of liberation struggle against the Zionists. If they fail to take advantage of this, such an opportunity might never come again. The ball is firmly within the Palestinian’s own court. They need to make full use of this golden opportunity. What must be the overriding target is to get a permanent ceasefire in place, establish a viable and internationally recognized government in place and move on from there. At least on paper, Hamas and the PA has recognized this fact.
The Palestinians in Gaza has paid a terrible price in lost lives, wounded and homeless for the Oct 7th 2023 Taufan Aqsa operation. Nonetheless, a golden opportunity awaits the Palestinians if they can unite as world opinion has been turned on its head due to Israel’s hubris, arrogance and disregard for human lives. For once Palestinians are viewed as heroes, resistance fighters for their own freedom fighting against the Zionist oppressors. The public image of Israel has been fatally injured. Palestinians have instead gained the world’s sympathies. People from both parties must demonstrate statesmanship and courage to work together under a unity government to realise a vision for a new dawn in Palestine. God willing, this can be a real possibility if both parties stay true to their agreement in Beijing.
The End
By Awaluddin Mohamed Shaharoun – PACE
